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Saturday, May 29, 2010



I Might Have Known... 



Plans by the ACME Company.



Coyote v. ACME

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LMRP Installation Sugery Begins... 



Bot uses saw to cut away fittings on the BOP.

Photo courtesy of 42Cliff at the Bot Observation Sweatshop



Video courtesy of Tuttlet:



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Two From XTC... 



Too much time staring at Bots... Time to jam a bit. Gonna get out to the garden.






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BOP... 



Post Top-Kill.



Didn't work.

The next step will be removing the riser from the BOP, and installing the LMRP Cap.



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Friday, May 28, 2010



BP’s Effort to Plug Oil Leak Suspended a Second Time 



Well... Glad the Media is catching up.

via NYT

In an operation known as a “junk shot,” BP engineers poured pieces of rubber, golf balls and other materials into the crippled blowout preventer, trying to clog the device that sits atop the wellhead. The maneuver was designed to work in conjunction with the continuing “top kill” operation, in which heavy drilling liquids are pumped into the well to counteract the pressure of the gushing oil.

If the efforts succeeded, officials intended to pump cement into the well to seal it. But the company suspended pumping operations at 2:30 a.m. Friday after two junk shot attempts, said the technician, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly about the efforts.

The suspension of the effort was not announced, and appeared to again contradict statements by company and government officials that suggested the top kill procedure was progressing Friday.


More at the link.


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Pushing A Lot Of Mud... 



I guess they need to keep trying as long as they have mud to push, while they set up the LMRP installation operation.




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Bot With Monkeyfist Freak Flag... 



Heh!




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Rigging... 



They appear to be doing rigging and prepwork to cut the top off of the BOP for the installation of the LMRP Cap. BP's Kent Wells told us that that would be the next operation if the Top Kill failed.

So. The fact that this rigging is going in place tells me that we are correct about the failure of Top Kill/Junk Shot.

Yes. They are waiting to break the bad news until later in the day.

Kent Well's video: http://bp.concerts.com/gom/kentwells_update24052010.htm


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Recording Failure... 



Glad we're screen-grabbing and recording, then.



Riser Bend is shredding fast.


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Top Kill Fail... 



Not the intended outcome.



heavy, heavy fucking sigh.

Damn.

Video of the Junk Shot... First Junk Shot???




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Hmm. That Don't Look Right... 



No one could have anticipated that that bent and rent riser that has been bearing the main upward thrust of all that Oil, sand, pipe bits and rocks would actually tear through it if further stressed.

click for big.


all I added was fail.

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Lots Of Emails... 



Here I was, just a little backwater bloggy place, 150,000 unique hits in six years. All of a sudden WOW! Well... Welcome everybody. glad you're here. I hope you like BP Gulf of Mexico Oil Disasters, Peak Energy discussions, Gardening, My Cats, and Local Community Building, because that's what I have here.

I am thrilled to see so many new people dropping in,, but I was caught by surprise. Boy, do I have a lot of email. I'm trying to get to a lot of it, but honestly... I recommend get a comfy chair and watch the SpillCam... it shows you everything. I only have a few hours to get everything I want to post set up and out there. I have chores, and garden work, and job... I'm replying as fast as I can type.

I think you know where to find me by now. I've posted the link plenty. There is good discussion there.

The Revolution will be SpillCam'd.


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Apparently Breaking Apart... 



After over 38 days, now, that bent and rent Riser pipe out of the top of the BOP has to be near to foil thin in places. For all the impressive flows we've seen at Riser End, only this very bend is what's kept that flow from being bigger. Has it lessened the overall flow? No...





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Thursday, May 27, 2010



Even More New Holes... 



Fresh today...

Thanks to Jack Napier






Seriously troubling rate of integrity loss here.

More at the link.


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The Bots' Tool Box... 



Heh. mad skilz!

via BatShitCrazy Photoshop and Perfumery Click for BIG.




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New Holes In The Riser At BOP Top. 



Showed up last night. That crimped riser is about to get shredded off from the inside. That'll be bad. Actually, It might do the Bots and the crew a favor in a way.

via BatShitCrazy Digital Studios and Doom Emporium




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Top Kill Failing. Junk Shot Perhaps Tonight.... 



I am pretty convinced that the Methane pouring out at a 3000:1 ratio versus Oil is the real problem at the moment. It seems to be pushing a column through the mud, allowing the Oil to follow. After they stopped the pumping, the gush started turning more brown within a couple of hours.

via BatShitCrazy at LATOC Forum



What they were hoping to see:




News via Reuters

* Mud pumping started, suspended and now restarted (Adds comments from BP chief operating officer)

By Kristen Hays

HOUSTON, May 27 (Reuters) - More than 24 hours into its crucial "top kill" plan, London-based BP Plc (BP.L) said on Thursday it was still too early to access the success or failure of its best short-term hope of plugging a blown-out well in the Gulf of Mexico.

When it began the operation to pump thousands of barrels of heavy drilling mud down the well on Wednesday, it said results could be clear in 24 hours.

On Thursday, an executive who has overseen the plug efforts for weeks said it would be another day or more.

"We're going to do the job as best we can," said Doug Suttles, BP's chief operating officer. "If it takes more than 24 hours, it takes more than 24 hours."

Pressure is mounting for the company to fix the leak. U.S. Interior Secretary Ken Salazar also has scolded the company for missing previous deadlines.

BP wants to set realistic expectations on a critical procedure, said Dan Pickering, co-president of Tudor Pickering Holt & Co energy investment and merchant banking in Houston.

"Going slow and being successful is better than going fast and/or jumping to conclusions," Pickering said.

After other efforts to stem or corral the leak failed, the stakes are climbing fast, he said.

"BP has indicated this has a 60 percent to 70 percent probability of working. If it doesn't, their credibility is weak and they're going to have a lot of very disappointed people," Pickering said.

The top kill is BP's latest effort to choke off the leak that threatens much of the Gulf Coast. The leak was discovered after a blowout preventer at the seabed failed on April 20 and the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig later exploded and sank, killing 11 workers.

OBJECTIVE 'NOT YET ACHIEVED'

The bigger of two leaks comes from the end of a broken pipe that had connected the well to the rig. A smaller leak continues from the bent pipe on top of the blowout preventer.

The top kill involves pumping drilling "mud," or fluids heavier than oil, into the failed blowout preventer and then down the well. The intent is for the fluid to overcome the flow of oil and "kill" the well.

Suttles said mud was pumped into the blowout preventer for about 10 hours on Wednesday, then suspended so scientists could study pressures to gauge whether the effort was working. If pressure is high, oil and gas is still leaking. Lower pressure indicates the mud is smothering the flow, he said.

He said some on BP's team saw improvement, while others were more skeptical. While mud is pumped into the blowout preventer, some can go down into the well, while some go up and then out of a broken pipe atop the blowout preventer, where oil and gas are leaking.

"We have not stopped the flow, so the operation has not yet achieved its objective," Suttles said.

Mud pumping restarted on Thursday. Suttles said BP also would pump in "bridging agents," or more solid materials, to help block the leak.

BP also may inject a "junk shot" of shredded rubber, golf balls and other materials to add more weight to push back the leak, Suttles said.

Pumping may stop again to allow more evaluation of pressures, he said.

"Nothing has actually gone wrong. This is a dynamic kill," he said.


Nothing has actually gone wrong, but then, nothing at all has gone right, so I guess it's moot. Meantime, it's just as bad, and they've dumped hundreds of thousands of gallons more extremely toxic shit into the ocean.

Rock on.

More at the links.

Live SpillCam via WKRG. tune in and join us at LATOC.


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Drilling Mud... 



tasty AND Nutritious!

via Offshore Environment

The Effects of Discharges of Drilling Fluid Additives

According to Patin, ferro-chrome lignosulfonate, a common drilling mud additive used as a thinner and deflocculant, has reported effects on survival and physiological responses of fish eggs and fry; the filtration control additive CMC (carboxy-methyl-cellulose) can cause death in fish fry at high concentrations (1,000-2,000mg/l) and physiological changes at 12-50 mg/l, whereas at the low concentrations (1-20mg/l) used in standard chronic tests it has no observed effects. Other additives used as defoamers, descalers, thinners, viscosifiers, lubricants, stabilisers, surfactants and corrosion inhibitors all have reported effects on marine organisms, ranging from minor physiological changes to reduced fertility, lower feeding rates and higher mortality, depending on the concentrations. Some of the corrosion inhibitors, for example phosphoxit-7, EKB-2-2 and EKB-6-2, are "characterised not only by high toxicity ... but by their ability to cause genetic and teratogenic damages as well (Petukhova, G. A., Tupitsina, L. S., Bulovatskaya, S. E. and Gerasimova, E. L. 1991. The Assessment of the Genetic Toxicity of Corrosion Inhibitors. In Theses of the Second All-Union Conference on Fisheries Toxicology,2: 97-98). Such properties were also revealed for a number of surface-active substances (surfactants) from a group of neonols - AF9-6, AF9-10, and others (Migalovski, I. P., Migalovskaya, V. N., Kosheleva, V. V. and Kasatkina, S. V. 1991. Impact of Surfactants on the Different Stages of Ontogeneses of Marine Fish under Experimental Conditions. In Theses of the Second All-Union Conference on Fisheries Toxicology, 1:46-48.)." [emphases added. JWGW.]

In 1995 Greenpeace published the following "typical analysis for heavy metal content of SOLTEX" [the commercial name of a common drilling fluid additive], which they had obtained from "a confidential source":



Well. If that's all...

GAH!

More at the link.


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Testing For Oil Outflow... 



Very high-tech methods:




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Wednesday, May 26, 2010



Top-Kill Wonderment... 



I'f your not watching SpillCam, your missing all the fun.

Monitoring continues at the BOP and Riser End, while the "mud," actually an extra-dense Petroleum-based drilling compound, is pumped at high-velocity through the BOP and down the casing to the deposit.

It seems that the abundance of Methane Gas pouring out is the stickler. They need to pump "mud" until the gas is tamped down.

I believe that this is what they are looking to see (click for big):





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BP's Kent Wells Explains The Top Kill... 



Nice to see them finally explaining themselves.

VIDEO via BP


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Apparently "Top Kill" Is Getting Underway... 



A new disclaimer!

via BP Live SpillCam

Throughout the extended top kill procedure – which may take up to two days to complete - very significant changes in the appearance of the flows at the seabed may be expected. These will not provide a reliable indicator of the overall progress, or success or failure, of the top kill operation as a whole. BP will report on the progress of the operation as appropriate and on its outcome when complete.

Maybe if you were showing us what you were DOING at the BOP, and properly communicating with the American people, making effective use of this wonderful American trifle we like to call the News Media, there would be less need for speculation.

That said, good luck BP Brain Trust. We're all counting on you.


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Tuesday, May 25, 2010



17:57pmCDT, Tuesday, 25MAY2010 Event... 



Either they are performing operations at the BOP/Wellhead, or another major eruption just took place. My friend, who is Bat Shit Crazy, and a genius, captured these images...

via LATOC Forum

It blew big time.









More at the link.

Hat-Tip to BSC.


UPDATE: Video courtesy of Guest.

Part 1:


Part 2:


Part 3:


Thank you, Guest.

Like I said-- they are either prepping the BOP for the Top-Kill, and moving the riser, or something unexpected, and not good at all is happening. That is an enormous, pent-up Methane release.

UPDATE 9:23pm CDT:
The Dispersant Dispenser/RITT Controller (???) appears to have finally given out after a lot of abuse over the weekend. Last evening, a bot had to hold the pipes in place for hours. The box lasted 10 whole days! Bravo, BP Brain Trust. wink



Keep in mind-- We're trusting the same people who made the metal box to save the world with an unprecedented DEEPWATER "Top-Kill" attempt-- Pass/EPIC Fail. 60-70% chance of success.

I'm no betting man, but I know a Hitting Average when I see it. Now, I've seen some power hitters with surprisingly low averages. BP hasn't hit one out of the park, yet. they are running a non-stop series of strike-outs, bawks, and errors.

That said, let us all send best wishes, prayers, energy, whatever you do, out there to the crew that has to do the operation. I don't envy them in the least.



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DuPont Plant Nearby Me Leaking Sulphur Trioxide... 



How fun. BTW-- it's also an LNG facility. not fun, actually.

I did NOT schedule death by toxic fumes into my work day, dammit!

Area is being evacuated, while my workplace is under guard-enforced lockdown.

via WMCTV

MEMPHIS, TN (WMC-TV) - Shelby County sheriff's deputies are evacuating an area near Fite Road and Highway 51 after a possible leak of hazardous materials.

Officials tell Action News 5 there appears to be a leak of sulfur trioxide at the Lucite plant on Fite Road.

Deputies have shut down traffic on Highway 51 and there have been evacuations in response to the leak. Additionally, all planes have been grounded at Charles Baker airport in Millington.

Officials are asking people to avoid the area.



UPDATE 11:08 CDT-- All-Clear. Whew!


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Monday, May 24, 2010



The Sunday Afternoon 1:20pmCDT Event... 



I have a friend, who is Bat Shit Crazy. No. Really. He's brilliant-- never mind that-- just looky here. Fortunately for you and me, and ironically enough, BP decided to run a repeat of the afternoon eruption i the late night, when they figured no one would notice. Our absolutely brilliant friend (did I mention he's a Mac User?), who is Bat Shit Crazy had it in him to record, and make a screengrab contact sheet of the event.

Below, you see the Riser pipe end, and a whole lot of the landscape blowing out. It spun Our Favorite Disaster Bot at least 360-degrees, before it recovered. Somewhere after the third blowout of the day, BP hauled it up. The ascent video is posted just below.

It's clear that something went crazy along what is left of the pipeline from the Casings through BOP to the terminal Riser end-- the Poster Child of the disaster.

via LATOC FORUM




Hat-Tip: You are Bat Shit Crazy, you are fantastically, magically brilliant, and you are my friend. That makes me happy!

Thanks for this. I'll probably ask for more.

Not many with blogs who saw this.


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Ascent Through The Plume... 



After the Saturday Afternoon Eruption, Our Favorite Disaster Bot needed to go to the surface for a window cleaning, and delousing. This is a ten-minute long video, but DO take the time to watch what it saw on it's 5000-foot rise to the surface. Plumes of enormous magnitude.



Some answers seem to be falling into place, as to what we saw happen yesterday. This is one of the easier answers. Everyone watching wanted to know what was happening to Our Favorite Disaster Bot, not to mention the poor Eels. After about an hour of chaos, just as visibility was settling in again, OFDB was thrust back into the dark murk. Now, we know that it just needed an oil change and the windshields cleaned.

It's clear that the ground around the riser pipe settled dramatically. It's clear that a little, leaky hole in the seabed turned into an erupting hole at least 12" across.

I believe that something big happened ~8am CDT, and again in the early afternoon. Some of the other, later events may have easy answers, and I am giving folks way smarter than me some time to pick at what we saw.

What we DO know, and there are screengrabs to prove it, is that after the big events, and the pulling of Our Favorite Bot, switched to a mix of previously recorded "loop" and live footage, basically randomly distributed to the various authorized feeds. Throwing chaff. It would seem that BP just can't help their PR deception...

BP-- look at it this way: You're not the Music Industry. Only they get to sell us a "Live" recorded video. YOU were ordered to provide REAL TIME streaming video. So, please stop fucking around.

And show us the BOP in Real Time, please.


Hat-tip to: M. Pinard for the video.


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Sunday, May 23, 2010



Major Change Down Below... 



I've put everything back into proper chronological order, and have begun adding images and video for documentary purposes.

I've been watching the live Spillcam, and discussing it with folks, here all day long. About 5pm last night, we all started taking note of gas bubbling out of the seabed floor. It started earlier than that, actually-- see pic a few posts down. About 1am this morning, the eruptions began to increase in spew volume.

The First Noted Venting Hole (TNVH).


At about 8am, CDT, as I watched, things started changing rapidly. Where the water around the two major gush points used to be very clear, it is now super turbid, and detritus is flying everywhere in a chaotic manner. seabed venting is obvious to see when ROV cameras pan around.

Yet-to-be-confirmed rumors are that the casing wall has finally worn through, about 300 feet below seabed, at an annulus (coupling), and the gas and oil are now finding a new way out to the seabed.

Not good news, as it will make the Top-Kill/Junk Shot nearly ineffectual... At the least, it means that more pressure and mud/cement is going to be required.

We'll see.

See for yourself, here: via BP Live Spillcam

Screengrab of the early Morning Chaos Event. Everthing went up all at once. ROV was perfectly stationary. EVERYTHING went "BOOM" and black:

I am looking for video of this event. Most people started taping after the actual start.
The entire range of field erupted at once. Everything. Everywhere, and then the pipe went GUSH!

Update: Here's a screen grab showing the new hole in the seabed. That's not the riser end from a new angle. This was grabbed while the ROV on the riser end was panning around. The BOP is over 600 feet away, so it is not that, either.

What the First Noted Venting Hole (TNVH) turned into 18 hours later.
Same pair of broken pipes, Riser end is in same position, except everything has settled down a few feet, and the hole is bigger. that's an ejection rim. Those two broken pipes are more exposed.
A lot of earth got moved down and away all at once.


UPDATE: The riser pipe used to be pretty clean all along it's top. Now, it is piled over with sediment.

Something had happened to the dispersant mechanism, too. Pipes and connectors got knocked loose, green liquid (antifreeze?) was pouring out of the machine, and we watched the ROV repair the leak.



Seabed seems to have sunk rapidly (perhaps scoured away rapidly?). Riser end is now in a big crater. Side pipes more exposed-- different angle?

UPDATE 1:20pm CDT: While watching, ANOTHER major "explosion" occurred. ROV Cam now covered in Oil. It was pushed around by the force of expulsion, or moved back a few feet by controllers. Our Favorite Disaster Bot is taking a beating. Gush seems to have at least doubled in size and volume.

Grabs:

Provided by BSC:

Photo series equating 12:23 minutes from "WTF?" to BOOOM! No need for ROV "reading" lectures, The pipe end billowed out, and then everywhere around billowed up, and then SPLAT!:



Corroborating grabs in order... BOOM! Splat... WTF???:









UPDATE 5:45pm CDT: A brand new MAJOR eruption is happening. tune into the SpillCam at BP.com . It's black, all you can see is a cable. It started with yet another GUSH plume/tornado.

Oh, dear-- now, we can see that that is a LOT of oil-- and a BLIZZARD of Hydrates..


UPDATE 6:03pm CDT: The current eruption is way, way worse than the several that occured earlier. I think this might be a "Main Event" situation.

UPDATE 6:45pm CDT: An hour after the start of this most recent eruption, and it is still just a wall of oil, methane crystals, and gack.

Our Favorite Disaster Bot is damaged, and needs an oil change and the windshield cleaned. Up it goes.

Oh, fuck... look at all the giant plumes in the water column... wow!:



Cut to black.

UPDATE 7:35pmCDT: Live feed of recent blowout froze-up, requiring a reload of page. All of a sudden-- no more black chaos-- just the current clear-water gusher view. I suspect loop tape, but I have the screen grabs from the entire day, below.

If there is another delay in the "Top-Kill/Junk Shot," you'll know why.

Grab of the last moment as OFDB left site, below. You can dimly make out the lights of the lighting rig, lower center of pic image-- That is the signature of a major event... not some bot churn. Those lights should be illuminating more than a foot radius. (click for BIG):




UPDATE 8:15pm CDT:
Top-Kill Delayed. Imagine my surprise.

UPDATE 11:51pmCDT: Another major eruption. These are not coming from the riser. They are coming in to view from elsewhere, even in the long, high-view shots. Sometimes from behind the ROV. Twenty-four hours of near non-stop SpillCam viewing, and not one look at the BOP.

Grab of the latest (11:51pm) eruption-- that is the Floodlighting Rig... Occluded:


I am sorry. This is not simple Bot Fan churn. This one came out of the riser end, along with an all-around Ker-BOOM action. Everything went up. One noticed the pipe-end exploding, but then there was gack flying everywhere, all around, too. Impact-directional-- not" going with the flow."

More as I can provide.

I think this stands on its own. I am sure there is more out there to post, and I'll do my best to get it here. A series of bad things happened on Sunday, May 23, 2010 at the Deepwater Horizon disaster site.

If this is becoming sort of routine to clear the RITT (Sippy Straw) , then I wonder why the hell they are continuing with something that isn't working? Send something better down every damned day, until you get the fucker stopped and filtered. Get your Company Einsteins working. New fix and tweak and peak every day... not every other fucking week, BP. Your faulty machinery is showing signs of compromise. Do more, faster.

Today 25MAY2010:




Thank you to the LATOC Forum.


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